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Claude b7297ad31f phase5: learned class-selection policy (SPEC §13) — rank classes by ledger evidence
crates/policy: reads the append-only ledger and ranks playbook classes by
the Wilson score lower bound of their machine-verified win rate — the same
'quote the lower bound' discipline the rest of the project uses. A class
that won 1/1 does not outrank one that won 8/10 (wider interval); untried
classes fall back to the cheapest-first prior; tried-and-failed classes
rank last. Advisory only — the gates still decide every verdict.

On the current 33-row ledger it ranks class 5 (algorithmic) first, then
class 3, then class 1 — the proven winners — with class 7 (untried) above
the evidence-against classes. Wins count only machine-sanitizer-verified
accepts (conservatively excluding pre-gate accepts and the overturned
comrak-010): the policy trusts the ledger's machine record, not narrative.
4 unit tests (Wilson monotonicity, small-sample penalty, ranking order).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EcKPWQ3MQD4NdEHwar96u2
2026-07-12 00:24:00 +00:00

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[package]
name = "policy"
description = "Learned class-selection policy (SPEC §13): rank playbook classes by the Wilson lower bound of their observed win-rate in the ledger, degrading to cheapest-first when data is thin"
version.workspace = true
edition.workspace = true
license.workspace = true
repository.workspace = true
[dependencies]
anyhow.workspace = true
clap.workspace = true
ledger = { path = "../ledger" }