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Claude
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phase4-cjson-service (ledger): the accepted batch win phase3-cjson-002 measured under a 150 rps coordinated-omission-correct replay (20 rounds, 40k requests, 0 drops). p50 latency +6.2%, 95% CI [+5.8%, +7.2%] — accepted; p99 CI [0.07, 4.97] too noisy (single-worker loopback tail), harness correctly rejected. ROI (500-core fleet, $0.04/core-hr): 27.5 cores / $9,621/year at the CI lower bound, report generated mechanically (results/phase4/cjson-service-roi.md). - results/phase4/: case study + README + the generated ROI report. - CLAUDE.md: Phase 4 complete; Phases 0-4 all done. All SPEC §5 exit criteria met across every phase; zero shipped false accepts across the whole project. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EcKPWQ3MQD4NdEHwar96u2
51 lines
2.3 KiB
Markdown
51 lines
2.3 KiB
Markdown
# ROI report — `phase4-cjson-service`
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**Target:** cjson · **Playbook class:** 5 · **Verdict:** `accepted`
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**Workload:** corpora/cjson/input/service.json, 1 parse+print/req, 150 rps open-loop, CO-correct
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## Throughput → cores → dollars
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Measured speedup (baseline/candidate): **1.0624**, 95% bootstrap CI **[1.0581, 1.0725]**.
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On a **500-core** fleet running this workload:
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| metric | median | 95% CI |
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| cores returned | 29.4 | [27.5, 33.8] |
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| annualized saving | $10290 | [$9621, $11838] |
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Pricing: **$0.04/core-hour**, **8760 h/year**. Source: _example: AWS m7i on-demand us-east-1, per-vCPU approximation — replace per engagement_
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The **CI lower bound is the number to quote** — 27.5 cores / $9621 per year is
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the saving that survives the 95% interval; the point estimate is not a promise.
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## Latency under replayed load
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Workload: corpora/cjson/input/service.json, 1 parse+print/req, 150 rps open-loop, CO-correct. Coordinated-omission-correct open-loop replay.
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| percentile | baseline | candidate | speedup | 95% CI |
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| p50 | 3.332 ms | 3.136 ms | 1.0624 | [1.0581, 1.0725] |
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| p99 | 24.726 ms | 23.947 ms | 1.0325 | [0.0715, 4.9714] |
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## Methodology (ships with the number)
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- **Interleaved A/B**, baseline rebuilt from a pristine checkout, never the agent's
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workspace. Candidate and baseline alternate to control thermal/background drift.
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- **Bootstrap 95% CI** of the ratio-of-medians; an effect is accepted only if the CI
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lower bound clears the threshold in `config/accept.toml` (2%).
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- **Equivalence gates** passed before any number was trusted: upstream test suite,
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byte-identical golden replay, differential fuzzing, and ASan/UBSan sanitizers.
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- **Calibrated hardware**: the workload passed A/A (false-positive <5%) and injected-
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regression (≥95% detection) self-tests, recorded in `results/calibration/`.
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- **Coordinated-omission correct** latency (service mode): each request's latency is
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measured from its intended send time, so queueing is counted, not hidden.
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## Caveats
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Every figure is specific to the workload and hardware named above. Throughput→cores
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assumes the fleet is CPU-bound on this path and scales linearly; latency figures are
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for the stated arrival rate. The saving to commit to is the **CI lower bound**, not
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the median.
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