osprey: fifth pass, measured against the real gitea

Runs the design against the thing it describes, with an ssh key and anonymous
HTTP, and corrects a claim I made confidently and wrongly.

The 404 I offered last pass as the ambiguity "live" was my own bad URL. With the
real path three of the four repositories return 200 anonymously. I built a URL
out of a claim I was in the middle of disproving and read its failure as evidence
for something else.

The path finding is worse than stated: the stored external path drops
raw/branch/main and .loom/published. The second is not routing — publication.md
makes .loom/published the whole contract, and our tree erases exactly that
segment, so nothing records whether a copy came from a published surface.

check ran by hand over all eight externals and found exactly one drift:
externals.md, whose diff is this round. Conditional requests confirmed, 304 on
match and 200 on stale, and seven of eight are byte-identical, so gitea's raw
serving normalises nothing.

reachable is validated three times over, each a real failure: settled publishes a
page nobody can fetch, .loom publishes one nobody will land on, and bedrock's
public starting page names a private repository as the better answer. The second
is the boundary of what the tool can test and is reported as such.

Records that the :2222 fact was published in homelab-cluster all along, on a page
that predicted the exact failure mode I hit, and that I could not read it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_018UTxuSizozEA8yDitPuris
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co-authored by Claude Opus 5
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