4 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
benbrownandClaude Fable 5 24127bbcb4 docs: name the statistical identity — Bayesian detective, frequentist court
The two halves of the system run on opposite statistical philosophies, on
purpose, and until now the docs never said so. The optimizer is a Bayesian
detective: playbook prior, ledger evidence, policy ranking, explain
feedback — belief-updating that decides what to try next. The trust layer
is a frequentist court: equivalence gates, per-machine calibrated error
rates (A/A false-positive bound, injected-regression power bound), and a
CI-lower-bound accept rule with no prior anywhere on the accept path —
because its audience is a hostile reviewer who shares none of your priors.

The load-bearing edge is the return path: evidence flows from court to
detective (ledger rows + explain); authority never flows the other way.
Invariant, now stated in four places: priors steer where we look; they
never touch what we conclude. A wrong prior costs compute — each wasted
attempt honestly ledgered. A prior in the verdict would cost a false
claim, the one unrecoverable failure for a project whose product is trust.

- thesis.md: full section with the two-box diagram incl. the return edge,
  in docket order (equivalence before measurement); notes that estimated
  payoff is a belief and dollar figures are minted only by the mechanical
  report from accepted rows, and that even the learning layer bets on
  Wilson LOWER bounds — the detective is a pessimist too.
- README: the one-breath version, linking the full argument.
- SPEC §1: dated note mapping each half to its sections.
- CLAUDE.md: the mental model, one paragraph under Mission.

Framing credit: emerged from a design conversation on whether peltier is
"Bayesian engineering" — it is exactly half of one.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-20 12:52:44 -04:00
benbrownandClaude Fable 5 444e5294fa explain: post-verdict diagnostics — SPEC §3.7, crate, docs
Verdicts say what; nothing said why. A rejection that reads only
rejected-bench teaches nothing, and the loop's compounding value is that
the next hypothesis is better than the last. This ships the teaching layer,
built so it can never contaminate the thing it explains.

New crate crates/explain (`just explain <run-id>`):

- Advisory, strictly off the accept path: runs after the verdict is
  recorded; nothing it emits feeds gates, bench, verdict, or ledger. Not
  agent-facing: harnessd stays at seven ops, by design (SPEC §3.7 says why
  - better hypotheses must never become a feedback channel into
  measurement).
- Ledger-only inputs, deterministic: consumes exactly one row via the new
  ledger::attempt_row; no config, no clock, no re-benching. Identical row,
  byte-identical text - proven live (cmp on two runs of a real row).
- Record vs inference is typographic: restatements print plain; anything
  beyond is prefixed `inference:` so an explanation can never be quoted as
  a measurement.
- The narrative must agree with the machine verdict. The first live run
  caught this class of bug: an accepted row without a recorded threshold
  was narrated as "a policy rejection" two lines under "verdict: accepted".
  Accepted rows are now always described by their CI lower bound (the
  defensible claim); rejected-bench rows classify against 1.0 (measured
  regression / null result / real-but-below-bar); NHR rows name the
  recorded cap and state the numbers were not the deciding factor;
  rejected-gate rows name the failing gate. Regression-tested.
- Historical rows are flagged, not laundered: accepted with
  sanitizers_clean=false prints the doctrine caution (comrak-010 shows it);
  fuzz_iters=0 accepts are named pre-integration rows.

verdict now records accept_threshold (the bar in force for that run) into
the bench env fingerprint, so rows are self-contained going forward -
explain never substitutes today's config for a historical bar, and says so
on older rows instead.

SPEC §3.7 (Added 2026-07-20) carries the invariants; book chapter
docs/src/explain.md shows real output from real rows (the accepted cJSON
win, the caught false-accept, the kernel-lane NHR); CLAUDE.md, README,
justfile, and the architecture layout updated (the layout also gains the
previously-omitted crates/policy line).

Verified: 21 workspace test suites green (6 new explain tests incl.
determinism and verdict-narrative agreement), clippy -D warnings clean,
fmt clean, mdbook builds, live runs against phase3-cjson-002,
phase5-matmul-opt, phase2-comrak-010, and phase4-cjson-service.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-20 09:53:14 -04:00
benbrownandClaude Opus 4.8 899d55f4b6 gates: close the audit findings — enforce the gates the docs claimed
An adversarial audit found the enforcement story ahead of the code: gates
that were documented as hard gates were advisory, manual, or absent, and
several human-facing claims outran the machine record. This makes the
claims true.

High findings

- Differential fuzz was documentation, not enforcement: verdict hardcoded
  fuzz_iters=0 and diff-test hardcoded the gate to Skipped, while the case
  studies claimed 10k-iteration fuzz on the same wins. Fuzz is now a real
  pipeline gate (strict FUZZ-RESULT contract, executed count recorded), and
  it is inherently baseline-vs-candidate, so it runs on the accept path and
  reports Skipped in the standalone `just gates` flow. New hard rule: a
  machine `accepted` verdict is impossible unless the fuzz gate actually
  passed — otherwise it caps at needs-human-review.
- The agent's system prompt claimed FP/concurrency/unsafe patches were
  "routed to human review automatically". No such mechanism existed. Added
  a conservative lexical risk classifier (crates/verdict/src/risk.rs) that
  forces needs-human-review on any would-be accept carrying those signals;
  fp-tolerance equivalence always signals.
- The local verdict path ran agent-influenced code unsandboxed. It now runs
  under scripts/no-net.sh (network namespace) and fails closed. Upstream
  test suites are hash-verified against corpora/<t>/TESTSUITE.sha256 when
  present (scripts/pin-testsuite.sh generates them).

Also fixed, found while fixing the above

- The pipeline script's `set -e` was inert (brace group as the left operand
  of `&&`), so a failing candidate build did not abort the run and verdict
  could bench a stale binary. Now a scoped subshell whose status is branched
  on at top level.
- A wrapper that exits before exec'ing (no-net.sh refusing, bad wrapper path)
  stranded RUNNING.lock and left read_verdict polling forever. Failure
  accounting now lives outside the wrapper.
- harnessd's patch allowlist ignored git rename/copy headers and --no-prefix
  diffs; the rename-escape case is now a committed regression test.
- The workspace did not compile on Windows (ungated Unix APIs). cfg-gated;
  71 portable tests now run on both platforms.
- pin-check regenerated the corpus manifest instead of verifying it; it is
  now verify-only, with a deliberate `just pin-corpus` to re-pin.
- Max RSS is captured per run on Unix; PMU counters are opt-in diagnostics
  (compare --perf-stat), never part of the accept decision.

Docs now match the code, including what is NOT yet enforced: no target ships
a TESTSUITE.sha256 pin, no target declares [build].tsan, and matmul is not
wired to the fp-tolerance gate — each is stated as mechanized-but-inert
rather than done. Corrected the stale "33 ledger rows" (34), the playbook's
class-3 cJSON win (rejected), adversarial-review.md's sanitizer-separation
claim (five accepted rows carry sanitizers_clean=false), the unsupported
"40,000 requests" figure, and the blanket "historical rows record
fuzz_iters=0" (8 of 10; phase0-tokei-002/-003 record 4,332).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-14 13:10:14 -04:00
Claude 328aafae77 Bootstrap hotpath from engineering spec v0.1
Commit the spec and scaffold the system it describes:

- SPEC.md: the full v0.1 engineering spec
- crates/: trust-layer Rust workspace, unit-tested
  - bench-runner: interleaved ABAB scheduling with discarded warm-ups,
    deterministic bootstrap CIs over the ratio of medians,
    CI-lower-bound accept rule, env fingerprinting, and a CLI with
    compare + A/A self-test modes (A/A verified passing end-to-end)
  - diff-test: gate outcome model, sha256 corpus pin verifier that
    refuses on mismatch, per-target equivalence policy parser
    (byte-identical default, explicit fp-tolerance opt-in)
  - ledger: append-only SQLite attempt schema with UPDATE/DELETE
    refused by triggers, anti-double-attempt query
  - report: cores-saved and dollars/yr ROI math over speedup CIs,
    pricing.toml inputs
- playbook/: classes 1-7 with preconditions, procedure, verification
  notes, and known failure modes per class
- agent/: Python package skeleton — six-tool contract and prompting
  spine, harness IPC deferred to Phase 1
- config/: accept.toml (2% threshold, 30 runs/side), pricing.toml
- targets/, corpora/, results/calibration/: layout and policy docs

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EcKPWQ3MQD4NdEHwar96u2
2026-07-06 18:34:51 +00:00